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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022?

55%

Chance
13 Forecasters • 17 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?

4%

Chance
23 Forecasters • 28 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?

10 Forecasters • 11 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 20 million
0%
Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive
36%
More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million
46%
Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive
16%
More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million
2%
100 million or more
0%

Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 April 2023?

34%

Chance
24 Forecasters • 28 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Will Iraq's parliament elect a new President of the Republic before 6 November 2022?

13%

Chance
10 Forecasters • 10 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 06, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°C in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the decadal average of annual deaths caused by floods in the world from 2091 to 2100, according to Our World in Data (OWiD)?

8 Forecasters • 9 Forecasts
Started Aug 02, 2022 10:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 10,000
4%
Between 10,000 and 25,000, inclusive
39%
More than 25,000 but fewer than 125,000
23%
Between 125,000 and 500,000, inclusive
16%
More than 500,000
18%

Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°C in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the decadal average of annual deaths caused by drought in the world from 2091 to 2100, according to Our World in Data (OWiD)?

7 Forecasters • 9 Forecasts
Started Aug 02, 2022 10:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 10,000
50%
Between 10,000 and 50,000, inclusive
2%
More than 50,000 but fewer than 250,000
1%
Between 250,000 and 1,250,000, inclusive
1%
More than 1,250,000
46%

Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°C in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the decadal average of annual heat-related deaths in the world from 2091 to 2100?

5 Forecasters • 6 Forecasts
Started Aug 02, 2022 10:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 350,000
0%
Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive
0%
More than 500,000 but fewer than 800,000
0%
Between 800,000 and 1.2 million, inclusive
0%
More than 1.2 million
100%

Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°C in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the FAO Food Price Index value for 2100?

4 Forecasters • 5 Forecasts
Started Aug 02, 2022 10:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 80.0
0%
Between 80.0 and 120.0, inclusive
22%
More than 120.0 but less than 170.0
3%
Between 170.0 and 230.0, inclusive
1%
More than 230.0
74%
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