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What will be the difference in the Earth's decadal average global surface temperature in 2091 to 2100 as compared to 1881 to 1890?

15 Forecasters • 17 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 1.00°C
34%
Between 1.00°C and 2.00°C, inclusive
42%
More than 2.00°C but less than 3.00°C
24%
Between 3.00°C and 4.00°C, inclusive
0%
More than 4.00°C but less than 5.00°C
0%
Between 5.00°C and 6.00°C, inclusive
0%
More than 6.00°C but less than 7.00°C
0%
7.00°C or more
0%
tabhuth asks:

Between 12 August 2022 and 18 February 2023, will former President Donald Trump be criminally charged with or indicted for a federal and/or state crime in the US?

58 Forecasters • 107 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 18, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, a federal crime only
19%
Yes, a state crime only
11%
Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime
22%
No
48%

Before 1 April 2023, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?

7%

Chance
36 Forecasters • 50 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
DippySkippy asks:

Before 8 November 2022, will American basketball player Brittney Griner leave Russia?

15%

Chance
39 Forecasters • 55 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC

When will the Council of the European Union (Council) declare a "Union alert" triggering a mandatory, EU-wide reduction in natural gas consumption?

32 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 October 2022
2%
Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022
58%
Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023
17%
Not before 1 April 2023
23%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022?

8%

Chance
30 Forecasters • 45 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?

4%

Chance
44 Forecasters • 60 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?

16 Forecasters • 25 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 20 million
3%
Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive
36%
More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million
35%
Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive
24%
More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million
2%
100 million or more
0%

Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 April 2023?

33%

Chance
54 Forecasters • 76 Forecasts
Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
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