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Tim Harford asks:

When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?

55 Forecasters • 90 Forecasts
Started Jun 18, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 12, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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On or before 14 July 2021
20%
Between 15 July and 28 July 2021
44%
Between 29 July and 11 August 2021
23%
Not before 12 August 2021
13%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?

60%

Chance
48 Forecasters • 58 Forecasts
Started Jun 18, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 30, 2021 08:01AM UTC

What will be the annual rate of headline inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in June 2022?

57 Forecasters • 76 Forecasts
Started Jun 18, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 0.0%
0%
Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive
12%
More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%
46%
Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive
30%
More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%
11%
5.0% or more
1%
Tim Harford asks:

When will the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) first represent more than 67.0% of COVID cases in the US?

44 Forecasters • 80 Forecasts
Started Jun 18, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 26, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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The two weeks ending 3 July 2021 or earlier
0%
The two weeks ending either 17 July 2021 or 31 July 2021
94%
The two weeks ending either 14 August 2021 or 28 August 2021
5%
The two weeks ending 11 September 2021 or 25 September 2021
1%
Not before 26 September 2021
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher on 16 July 2021 than it was on 16 June 2021?

65%

Chance
46 Forecasters • 71 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 16, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?

40 Forecasters • 56 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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No
71%
Yes, between 1 and 10
29%
Yes, between 11 and 50
0%
Yes, between 51 and 150
0%
Yes, more than 150
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?

30 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2021 10:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
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Lower than $220.00/MT
0%
Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive
11%
Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT
51%
Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive
36%
Higher than $340.00/MT
2%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022?

26 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2021 08:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 30, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 3,800
8%
Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive
10%
More than 4,100 but less than 4,400
27%
Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive
37%
More than 4,700 but less than 5,000
16%
5,000 or more
2%
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