Status

Type

Sort By

How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2022 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?

64 Forecasters • 186 Forecasts
Started May 06, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
3 or fewer
0%
Between 4 and 6
10%
Between 7 and 9
51%
Between 10 and 12
33%
Between 13 and 15
6%
16 or more
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?

37 Forecasters • 126 Forecasts
Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 11, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 3.5 million sq. km
0%
Between 3.5 million sq. km and 4.0 million sq. km, inclusive
1%
More than 4.0 million sq. km but less than 4.5 million sq. km
23%
Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive
62%
More than 5.0 million sq. km
14%

As of 8 November 2022, how many birds in commercial and backyard flocks will have confirmations of highly pathogenic avian flu (HPAI) in 2022, according to the USDA?

24 Forecasters • 148 Forecasts
Started Apr 22, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 40 million
0%
Between 40 million and 50 million, inclusive
85%
More than 50 million but fewer than 70 million
15%
Between 70 million and 100 million, inclusive
0%
More than 100 million but fewer than 150 million
0%
150 million or more
0%
The Economist asks:

Will total fire activity in the Amazon for January through September 2022 exceed the total for January through September 2021?

84%

Chance
169 Forecasters • 355 Forecasts
Started Jan 07, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?

66 Forecasters • 318 Forecasts
Started Dec 13, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 150,000
0%
Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive
0%
More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000
7%
Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive
54%
More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000
39%
350,000 or more
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?

75 Forecasters • 325 Forecasts
Started Dec 13, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 700,000
0%
Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive
0%
More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000
28%
Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive
66%
More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000
6%
1,900,000 or more
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What percentage of all light vehicle sales in the US will be either plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) or all-electric vehicles (EVs) in 2022?

76 Forecasters • 388 Forecasts
Started Nov 05, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 2.0%
0%
Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive
0%
More than 3.0% but less than 4.0%
0%
Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive
13%
More than 5.0%
87%
Dubai Future Experts Candidates ask:

What will be the average temperature at Dubai International Airport between 1 May 2022 and 30 September 2022?

58 Forecasters • 280 Forecasts
Started Sep 24, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius
0%
Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive
20%
More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius
77%
Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive
4%
More than 37.5 degrees Celsius
0%
Dubai Future Experts Candidates ask:

Will single-use plastic bags be banned in all of the UAE before 8 January 2023?

5%

Chance
62 Forecasters • 208 Forecasts
Started Sep 24, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 08, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel