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Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?

50%

Chance
38 Forecasters • 44 Forecasts
Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?

68%

Chance
39 Forecasters • 48 Forecasts
Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
BenDuth asks:

Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?

3%

Chance
65 Forecasters • 75 Forecasts
Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?

14%

Chance
97 Forecasters • 123 Forecasts
Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?

44 Forecasters • 61 Forecasts
Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 March 2021
0%
Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021
30%
Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021
48%
Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021
19%
Not before 1 June 2021
3%

How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?

45 Forecasters • 65 Forecasts
Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 31, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
7 or fewer
64%
Between 8 and 14
29%
Between 15 and 21
6%
Between 22 and 28
1%
29 or more
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?

2%

Chance
70 Forecasters • 82 Forecasts
Started Jan 21, 2021 01:00AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?

90%

Chance
107 Forecasters • 119 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 06, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?

15%

Chance
39 Forecasters • 47 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 07, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?

56 Forecasters • 65 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 226 seats
1%
Between 226 seats and 299 seats
23%
300 seats or more
75%
Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021
1%
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