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Will employees at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse vote in the affirmative to unionize in their next scheduled election?

5%

Chance
102 Forecasters • 330 Forecasts
Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 25, 2022 07:01AM UTC
JamesHaven asks:

What percent of Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program will earn shared savings in 2021?

16 Forecasters • 62 Forecasts
Started Nov 05, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Less than 40%
0%
Between 40% and 50%, inclusive
0%
More than 50% but less than 60%
1%
Between 60% and 70%, inclusive
90%
More than 70% but less than 80%
9%
80% or more
0%
The Economist and Private Superforecasting Workshop ask:

What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?

151 Forecasters • 593 Forecasts
Started Oct 22, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)
95%
Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive
5%
More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands)
0%
Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive
0%
More than 700.0 (thousands)
0%
Dubai Future Experts Candidates ask:

As of the end of 2021, will total connected capacity of solar panels installed through the Shams Dubai program reach or exceed 400 MW?

0%

Chance
41 Forecasters • 134 Forecasts
Started Sep 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many thousand tonnes (kt) of paper and paperboard will be produced globally in 2021?

48 Forecasters • 148 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2021 09:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 320,000 kt
0%
Between 320,000 kt and 340,000 kt, inclusive
0%
More than 340,000 kt but fewer than 360,000 kt
26%
360,000 kt or more
74%

What forecasting questions should we ask? What questions would you like to forecast on GJOpen?

Discuss
70 Commenters • 614 Comments
Started Feb 12, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 04, 2022 10:00PM UTC

How can we all, as forecasters, disagree without being disagreeable?

Discuss
36 Commenters • 157 Comments
Started Nov 10, 2020 10:12PM UTC
Closed Jan 15, 2021 05:00PM UTC
The Mack Institute asks:

How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?

178 Forecasters • 546 Forecasts
Started Aug 21, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 25,000
79%
Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive
20%
More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000
0%
Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive
0%
More than 250,000
0%
The Mack Institute asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?

148 Forecasters • 484 Forecasts
Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service
24%
Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package
0%
Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service
11%
No
46%
The Mack Institute asks:

Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?

117 Forecasters • 404 Forecasts
Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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0
0%
1 or 2
30%
3 or 4
15%
5 or 6
0%
7 or more
0%
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