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Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?

95%

Chance
81 Forecasters • 86 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 06, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?

13%

Chance
29 Forecasters • 32 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 07, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?

41 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 226 seats
0%
Between 226 seats and 299 seats
17%
300 seats or more
82%
Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021
1%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?

23 Forecasters • 26 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats
14%
Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most
83%
No
3%
The Economist asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?

39 Forecasters • 50 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021
57%
Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021
33%
Not before 18 September 2021
10%

Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?

68%

Chance
32 Forecasters • 35 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 07, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?

49%

Chance
43 Forecasters • 58 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?

43 Forecasters • 60 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador
10%
Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador
2%
No
88%

Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?

5%

Chance
31 Forecasters • 58 Forecasts
Started Jan 06, 2021 08:30PM UTC
Closing Jan 11, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?

16 Forecasters • 26 Forecasts
Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 28, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 35
0%
Between 35 and 50, inclusive
7%
More than 50 but fewer than 65
93%
65 or more
0%
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