Sort By

Before 15 December 2018, will the House of Commons approve the Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom from the European Union?

0%

Chance
78 Forecasters • 122 Forecasts
Started Nov 30, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 14, 2018 07:59AM UTC
The Economist asks

Will the UK hold a referendum vote on its relationship with the EU or a snap general election before 29 March 2019?

82 Forecasters • 121 Forecasts
Started Nov 30, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 29, 2019 06:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
No
86%
Yes, only a snap general election
6%
Yes, only a referendum on its relationship with the EU
8%
Yes, both
0%

Will Serbia and Kosovo reach a comprehensive normalization agreement before 1 January 2020?

14%

Chance
154 Forecasters • 354 Forecasts
Started Apr 18, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC

Before 1 April 2019, how many countries will formally progress in the NATO accession process?

150 Forecasters • 422 Forecasts
Started Apr 18, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
0
11%
1
88%
2
1%
3
0%
4 or more
0%

What will be the all-time count of pro-Kremlin disinformation cases identified by the European Union External Action Service's East StratCom Task Force as of 18 April 2019?

98 Forecasters • 347 Forecasts
Started Apr 18, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 18, 2019 06:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 4300
0%
Between 4300 and 4900, inclusive
10%
More than 4900 but less than 5500
84%
Between 5500 and 6300, inclusive
7%
More than 6300
0%

What will be Russia's 2019 military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, according to SIPRI?

144 Forecasters • 341 Forecasts
Started Apr 18, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 4.4%
58%
Between 4.4% and 4.9%, inclusive
31%
More than 4.9% but less than 5.5%
11%
Between 5.5% and 6.0%, inclusive
0%
More than 6.0%
0%

Before 1 October 2019, will the OSCE verify that separatist forces have withdrawn all of their heavy weaponry in accordance with the Minsk II Peace Agreement?

2%

Chance
134 Forecasters • 295 Forecasts
Started Apr 18, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC

How many media outlets will be on the Russian Ministry of Justice's list of media designated as foreign agents on 1 June 2019?

104 Forecasters • 240 Forecasts
Started Apr 11, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2019 06:59AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 3
0%
3 to 7, inclusive
0%
8 to 10, inclusive
81%
11 to 20, inclusive
19%
More than 20
0%

Before 1 January 2020, will a NATO member formally invoke Article 4 or Article 5 of the Washington Treaty in response to actions taken by Russia?

5%

Chance
195 Forecasters • 464 Forecasts
Started Apr 11, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2020 07:59PM UTC