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Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 20 July 2022?

30%

Chance
27 Forecasters • 36 Forecasts
Started May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 20, 2022 07:01AM UTC
David Epstein asks:

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 20 August 2022?

9%

Chance
28 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started May 20, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 20, 2022 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) sign a bilateral defense treaty before 6 May 2023?

75%

Chance
27 Forecasters • 48 Forecasts
Started May 06, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 06, 2023 07:01AM UTC

How many seats will the Ensemble Citoyens (Citizens Together) alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?

23 Forecasters • 31 Forecasts
Started May 06, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 19, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 289
0%
Between 289 and 321
12%
Between 322 and 353
72%
Between 354 and 385
16%
More than 385
0%

Before 9 July 2022, will the Israeli Knesset vote to dissolve itself?

15%

Chance
41 Forecasters • 97 Forecasts
Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 09, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?

18 Forecasters • 30 Forecasts
Started Apr 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 04, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 40.0%
0%
Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive
42%
More than 50.0% but less than 60%
35%
60.0% or more
17%
Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022
6%
erikbays and David Epstein ask:

Before 17 December 2022, will Saudi Arabia publicly announce that it will begin accepting yuan as payment for oil from China?

30%

Chance
91 Forecasters • 190 Forecasts
Started Apr 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 17, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce it will discontinue its monthly net asset purchases under its Asset purchase program (APP) before 10 June 2022?

100%

Chance
36 Forecasters • 81 Forecasts
Started Mar 25, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 10, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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