Good Judgment® Open

Question

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Between 16 September 2022 and 31 October 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 200 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights?

Closing

Nov 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 October 2023, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?

Closing

Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2024, will the US, IAEA, and/or a UN agency publicly state that it believes it more likely than not that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon capable of being detonated?

Closing

Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Georgia and those of Russia, Abkhazia, and/or South Ossetia result in 100 or more fatalities?

Closing

Mar 17, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 April 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?

Closing

Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

102

158

Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?

Closing

Mar 17, 2023 07:01AM UTC

114

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Hong Kong cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine in Hong Kong?

Closing

Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person?

Closing

Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

116

157

What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?

Closing

Oct 02, 2022 07:01AM UTC

113

246

Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 15 March 2023?

Closing

Mar 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC

102

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Between 16 September 2022 and 31 October 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 200 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights?

Before 1 October 2023, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?

Before 1 July 2024, will the US, IAEA, and/or a UN agency publicly state that it believes it more likely than not that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon capable of being detonated?

Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Georgia and those of Russia, Abkhazia, and/or South Ossetia result in 100 or more fatalities?

Before 1 April 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?

Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?

Before 1 January 2023, will Hong Kong cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine in Hong Kong?

Before 1 January 2023, will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person?

What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 15 March 2023?

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