Good Judgment® Open

Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?

5%

Chance

20 Forecasters • 24 Forecasts

Started Sep 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

asks:

When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum?

73 Forecasters • 112 Forecasts

Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Before 1 January 2022

3%

Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022

24%

Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022

34%

Not before 1 January 2023

39%

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "Worked from home and didn’t travel to work" fell to 15% or lower?

15%

Chance

59 Forecasters • 81 Forecasts

Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Dec 17, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Before 2 October 2021, will the Taliban submit credentials to the Secretary-General of the UN to represent Afghanistan for the 76th UN General Assembly session?

108 Forecasters • 338 Forecasts

Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Oct 02, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Yes, and their credentials will be recognized

6%

Yes, but their credentials will not be recognized

44%

No

50%

asks:

Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the "Paris Rulebook," the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?

10%

Chance

78 Forecasters • 112 Forecasts

Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Nov 16, 2021 08:01AM UTC

asks:

Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors be imposed in England before 1 January 2022?

21%

Chance

134 Forecasters • 219 Forecasts

Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

asks:

Will Rishi Sunak cease to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer before 1 January 2022?

2%

Chance

78 Forecasters • 125 Forecasts

Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

asks:

Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?

10%

Chance

76 Forecasters • 118 Forecasts

Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Apr 04, 2022 07:01AM UTC

asks:

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?

9%

Chance

65 Forecasters • 105 Forecasts

Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Feb 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?

65%

Chance

72 Forecasters • 226 Forecasts

Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC