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The
Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)
asks:
Will France grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022?
40%
Chance
19 Forecasters • 21 Forecasts
Started
Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The
Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)
asks:
Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?
14 Forecasters • 17 Forecasts
Started
Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
0
8%
1
37%
2 or more
55%
Adam Grant
asks:
Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?
69%
Chance
118 Forecasters • 125 Forecasts
Started
Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing
Aug 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
and
erikbays
ask:
Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?
66%
Chance
65 Forecasters • 114 Forecasts
Started
Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?
8%
Chance
47 Forecasters • 71 Forecasts
Started
Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Feb 05, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?
5%
Chance
71 Forecasters • 122 Forecasts
Started
Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?
10%
Chance
80 Forecasters • 120 Forecasts
Started
Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist
asks:
Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?
76%
Chance
51 Forecasters • 75 Forecasts
Started
Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?
90%
Chance
137 Forecasters • 203 Forecasts
Started
Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
May 06, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?
4%
Chance
48 Forecasters • 75 Forecasts
Started
Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Nov 07, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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