Status

Type

Sort By

CJH asks:

Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?

21 Forecasters • 34 Forecasts
Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 26, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
The CDU but not the Green Party
16%
The Green Party but not the CDU
16%
Both the CDU and the Green Party
56%
Neither the CDU nor the Green Party
0%
No government will be formed before 31 December 2021
12%
Terry-Smith and 024_andrew ask:

Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?

87 Forecasters • 182 Forecasts
Started Mar 19, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 22, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Eric Adams
17%
Scott Stringer
6%
Maya Wiley
9%
Andrew Yang
65%
Someone else
3%
CJH asks:

Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?

66 Forecasters • 174 Forecasts
Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and Newsom will be recalled
3%
Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled
97%
No
0%
The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?

83%

Chance
65 Forecasters • 127 Forecasts
Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?

80%

Chance
155 Forecasters • 391 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 06, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist asks:

How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?

101 Forecasters • 224 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 226 seats
1%
Between 226 seats and 299 seats
41%
300 seats or more
56%
Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021
2%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?

40 Forecasters • 93 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats
4%
Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most
95%
No
1%
The Economist asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?

89 Forecasters • 305 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021
54%
Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021
36%
Not before 18 September 2021
10%
The Economist asks:

Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?

77 Forecasters • 149 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador
5%
Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador
0%
No
95%
The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?

14%

Chance
153 Forecasters • 383 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel