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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?

6%

Chance
13 Forecasters • 14 Forecasts
Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?

36 Forecasters • 65 Forecasts
Started Jul 21, 2021 02:28PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Gabriel Boric
51%
Sebastián Sichel
39%
Another candidate
9%
There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022
1%

Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?

32%

Chance
48 Forecasters • 87 Forecasts
Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?

49%

Chance
66 Forecasters • 112 Forecasts
Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Adam Grant asks:

Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court?

1%

Chance
146 Forecasters • 321 Forecasts
Started May 14, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will happen next regarding New York Governor Andrew Cuomo?

105 Forecasters • 283 Forecasts
Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Cuomo will announce that he will not seek reelection as governor in 2022
12%
Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor
0%
Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial
0%
None of these will occur before 1 April 2022
88%
Adam Grant and 024_andrew and ask:

Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?

0%

Chance
181 Forecasters • 371 Forecasts
Started Apr 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
CJH asks:

Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?

85 Forecasters • 333 Forecasts
Started Feb 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and Newsom will be recalled
8%
Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled
92%
No
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?

2%

Chance
77 Forecasters • 191 Forecasts
Started Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 05, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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