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Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?

5%

Chance
31 Forecasters • 58 Forecasts
Started Jan 06, 2021 08:30PM UTC
Closing Jan 11, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?

28 Forecasters • 78 Forecasts
Started Dec 04, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only for president
9%
Yes, only for parliament
0%
Yes, for both president and parliament
91%
No
0%
The Economist asks:

Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?

65 Forecasters • 95 Forecasts
Started Dec 04, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)
4%
A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)
3%
A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)
11%
A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)
23%
Another candidate
58%
There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021
1%
The Economist asks:

Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?

92 Forecasters • 178 Forecasts
Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Nguyễn Thị Kim Ngân
5%
Nguyễn Xuân Phúc
91%
Trần Quốc Vượng
4%
Someone else
0%
A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021
0%
The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?

7%

Chance
183 Forecasters • 241 Forecasts
Started Nov 27, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?

3%

Chance
184 Forecasters • 374 Forecasts
Started Nov 13, 2020 10:30PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?

5%

Chance
54 Forecasters • 151 Forecasts
Started Nov 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?

2%

Chance
59 Forecasters • 225 Forecasts
Started Oct 23, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 23, 2021 07:01AM UTC

When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?

55 Forecasters • 300 Forecasts
Started Oct 02, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Before 1 December 2020
0%
Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021
40%
Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021
47%
Not before 1 April 2021
13%
SE_Meyer asks:

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?

2%

Chance
147 Forecasters • 332 Forecasts
Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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