Good Judgment® Open

When will the US lift the suspension of entry for noncitizens who have been present in South Africa during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US?

23 Forecasters • 31 Forecasts

Started Dec 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

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Before 1 January 2022

Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022

24%

Not before 1 April 2022

76%

The Economist asks:

Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

17 Forecasters • 22 Forecasts

Started Dec 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing May 05, 2022 07:01AM UTC

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Democratic Unionist Party

Sinn Féin

94%

Another party

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?

9%

Chance

44 Forecasters • 49 Forecasts

Started Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?

30 Forecasters • 45 Forecasts

Started Nov 19, 2021 10:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

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1 or 2

30%

3 or 4

36%

5 or 6

21%

7 or more

13%

DrStrangelove asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?

54%

Chance

80 Forecasters • 133 Forecasts

Started Nov 05, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 15, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will China and/or a host country officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti?

15%

Chance

51 Forecasters • 61 Forecasts

Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?

5%

Chance

26 Forecasters • 28 Forecasts

Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?

24 Forecasters • 32 Forecasts

Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

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81%

1 or 2

19%

3 or 4

5 or more

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will a Latin American or Caribbean nation cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

58%

Chance

46 Forecasters • 84 Forecasts

Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 30 October 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

4%

Chance

33 Forecasters • 37 Forecasts

Started Oct 29, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

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When will the US lift the suspension of entry for noncitizens who have been present in South Africa during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US?

Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?

Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?

9%

Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?

54%

Before 1 January 2023, will China and/or a host country officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti?

15%

Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?

5%

Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?

Before 1 January 2023, will a Latin American or Caribbean nation cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

58%

Between 30 October 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

4%

Status

Type

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9%

54%

15%

5%

58%

4%