Good Judgment® Open

Columbus asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?

8%

Chance

21 Forecasters • 31 Forecasts

Started Sep 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?

10%

Chance

30 Forecasters • 54 Forecasts

Started Sep 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Bobbiekar52 asks:

Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022?

3%

Chance

50 Forecasters • 65 Forecasts

Started Sep 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

erikbays asks:

Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?

8%

Chance

68 Forecasters • 114 Forecasts

Started Aug 13, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Feb 13, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?

3%

Chance

54 Forecasters • 102 Forecasts

Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government?

0%

Chance

87 Forecasters • 261 Forecasts

Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

1%

Chance

89 Forecasters • 139 Forecasts

Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?

54 Forecasters • 329 Forecasts

Started Jun 17, 2021 10:00PM UTC

Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Lower than $220.00/MT

Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive

28%

Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT

53%

Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive

18%

Higher than $340.00/MT

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

92 Forecasters • 316 Forecasts

Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

95%

3 or more

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?

1%

Chance

116 Forecasters • 242 Forecasts

Started Apr 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

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Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?

8%

Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?

10%

Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022?

3%

Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?

8%

Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?

3%

Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government?

0%

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

1%

What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?

1%

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8%

10%

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1%

1%