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Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 8.50% before 1 December 2022?

78%

Chance
18 Forecasters • 19 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2022 relative to the 2021 holiday season?

6 Forecasters • 11 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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Lower by 5.0% or more
0%
Lower by more than 2.5% but less than 5.0%
4%
Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive
7%
Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%
33%
Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive
29%
Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%
19%
Higher by 7.5% or more
8%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Taiwan as of 31 July 2022?

27 Forecasters • 40 Forecasts
Started Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 3.8 million
0%
Between 3.8 million and 4.3 million, inclusive
32%
More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.8 million
56%
Between 4.8 million and 5.3 million, inclusive
9%
More than 5.3 million but fewer than 5.8 million
3%
Between 5.8 million and 6.3 million, inclusive
0%
More than 6.3 million
0%
Foxes Ask:

Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of a country in the Horn of Africa before 1 April 2023?

68%

Chance
27 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in December 2022?

21 Forecasters • 37 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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Fewer than 50 million
0%
Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive
1%
More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million
13%
Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive
46%
More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million
37%
Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive
3%
More than 75 million
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 8 November 2022, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?

22 Forecasters • 34 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Less than $3.00
0%
Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive
0%
More than $3.50 but less than $4.00
0%
Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive
30%
More than $4.50 but less than $5.00
42%
Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive
27%
More than $5.50 but less than $6.00
1%
Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive
0%
More than $6.50
0%

What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?

27 Forecasters • 54 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 23, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Less than 4.00
0%
Between 4.00 and 5.50, inclusive
0%
More than 5.50 but less than 7.00
13%
Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive
28%
More than 8.50 but less than 10.00
25%
Between 10.00 and 11.50, inclusive
22%
More than 11.50 but less than 13.00
6%
Between 13.00 and 14.50, inclusive
6%
More than 14.50
0%

What will be the unadjusted percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for coffee in May 2023 as compared to May 2022?

18 Forecasters • 37 Forecasts
Started Jun 17, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
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Down by more than 3.0%
1%
Down by between 0.0% and 3.0%, inclusive
1%
Up by more than 0.0% but less than 3.0%
22%
Up by between 3.0% and 6.0%, inclusive
41%
Up by more than 6.0% but less than 9.0%
23%
Up by between 9.0% and 12.0%, inclusive
12%
Up by more than 12.0%
0%

What will voter turnout be in the 2022 presidency elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia)?

13 Forecasters • 36 Forecasts
Started Jun 10, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 02, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 44.0%
0%
Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive
0%
More than 48.0% but less than 52.0%
33%
Between 52.0% and 56.0%, inclusive
63%
More than 56.0%
4%
Presidency elections will not be held in 2022
0%

What will be the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for "Paid hourly" workers in April 2023?

21 Forecasters • 44 Forecasts
Started Jun 10, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
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Less than 2.0%
0%
Between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive
1%
More than 4.0% but less than 6.0%
67%
Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive
32%
More than 8.0%
0%
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