Good Judgment® Open

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government?

1%

Chance

18 Forecasters • 20 Forecasts

Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?

1%

Chance

16 Forecasters • 21 Forecasts

Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Oct 02, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

3%

Chance

72 Forecasters • 78 Forecasts

Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?

2%

Chance

50 Forecasters • 77 Forecasts

Started Jul 09, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?

92%

Chance

46 Forecasters • 108 Forecasts

Started Jun 30, 2021 09:00PM UTC

Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?

5%

Chance

91 Forecasters • 136 Forecasts

Started Jun 24, 2021 09:00PM UTC

Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?

5%

Chance

201 Forecasters • 352 Forecasts

Started Jun 11, 2021 10:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

77 Forecasters • 200 Forecasts

Started Apr 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

76%

23%

3 or more

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

0%

Chance

73 Forecasters • 148 Forecasts

Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

77 Forecasters • 252 Forecasts

Started Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Less than 2.00%

12%

Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive

72%

More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%

16%

3.00% or more

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Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government?

1%

Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?

1%

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

3%

Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?

2%

Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?

92%

Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?

5%

Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?

5%

Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?

Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

0%

What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?

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Type

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1%

1%

3%

2%

92%

5%

5%

0%