Good Judgment® Open

Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022?

100%

Chance

1 Forecaster • 1 Forecast

Started Oct 22, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022?

3%

Chance

26 Forecasters • 27 Forecasts

Started Oct 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and/or Taiwan?

32 Forecasters • 60 Forecasts

Started Oct 08, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jul 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Show All Possible Answers

Yes, but only for the PRC

11%

Yes, but only for Taiwan

6%

Yes, for both

3%

No

80%

Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?

14%

Chance

24 Forecasters • 35 Forecasts

Started Sep 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?

10%

Chance

30 Forecasters • 55 Forecasts

Started Sep 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Sep 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

asks:

Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the "Paris Rulebook," the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?

22%

Chance

93 Forecasters • 169 Forecasts

Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Nov 16, 2021 08:01AM UTC

asks:

Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?

9%

Chance

80 Forecasters • 151 Forecasts

Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Feb 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?

9%

Chance

70 Forecasters • 117 Forecasts

Started Aug 13, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Feb 13, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?

50%

Chance

77 Forecasters • 337 Forecasts

Started Aug 06, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2023, will the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban sign an agreement that includes provisions for the establishment and/or recognition of a national government?

0%

Chance

87 Forecasters • 265 Forecasts

Started Jul 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC