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Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?

13%

Chance
29 Forecasters • 32 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 07, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?

68%

Chance
32 Forecasters • 35 Forecasts
Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 07, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?

97%

Chance
82 Forecasters • 133 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 06, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?

2%

Chance
117 Forecasters • 153 Forecasts
Started Jan 06, 2021 08:30PM UTC
Closing Mar 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?

2%

Chance
54 Forecasters • 111 Forecasts
Started Dec 22, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

169 Forecasters • 321 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022
25%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022
75%
No
0%
The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?

5%

Chance
189 Forecasters • 236 Forecasts
Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?

95 Forecasters • 183 Forecasts
Started Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC
Closing Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Yes, only Michael Kovrig
0%
Yes, only Michael Spavor
0%
Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor
28%
No
72%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?

3%

Chance
184 Forecasters • 374 Forecasts
Started Nov 13, 2020 10:30PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
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