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The
Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)
asks:
Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?
0%
Chance
12 Forecasters • 13 Forecasts
Started
Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology?
6%
Chance
41 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started
Apr 09, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Adam Grant
asks:
Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?
4%
Chance
145 Forecasters • 184 Forecasts
Started
Apr 02, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Aug 20, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?
25%
Chance
153 Forecasters • 203 Forecasts
Started
Mar 26, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
and
erikbays
ask:
What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?
95 Forecasters • 188 Forecasts
Started
Mar 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closing
Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Lower than 1.7%
1%
Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive
13%
Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%
42%
Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive
32%
Higher than 3.1%
12%
The Economist
asks:
Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?
70%
Chance
103 Forecasters • 165 Forecasts
Started
Mar 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Ryan-Beck
and
Kinnaj
ask:
Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?
14%
Chance
48 Forecasters • 88 Forecasts
Started
Mar 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?
98 Forecasters • 326 Forecasts
Started
Mar 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closing
May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 150,000
97%
Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive
3%
More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000
0%
Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive
0%
More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000
0%
550,000 or more
0%
Adam Grant
asks:
In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?
60%
Chance
229 Forecasters • 330 Forecasts
Started
Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The Economist
and
Adam Grant
ask:
How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?
239 Forecasters • 432 Forecasts
Started
Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closing
Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 8,000,000
0%
Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive
10%
More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000
49%
Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive
38%
More than 14,000,000
3%
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