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What forecasting questions should we ask? What questions would you like to forecast on GJOpen?

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4 Commenters • 4 Comments
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many games will the Baltimore Orioles have won in the 2022 MLB season as of 1 August 2022?

8 Forecasters • 10 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 41
2%
Between 41 and 46
43%
Between 47 and 52
49%
Between 53 and 58
5%
More than 58
1%

Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 8.50% before 1 December 2022?

78%

Chance
18 Forecasters • 19 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2022 relative to the 2021 holiday season?

6 Forecasters • 11 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Lower by 5.0% or more
0%
Lower by more than 2.5% but less than 5.0%
4%
Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive
7%
Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%
33%
Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive
29%
Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%
19%
Higher by 7.5% or more
8%

Before 1 July 2023, will the Federal Reserve announce a cut in the US federal funds rate?

41%

Chance
23 Forecasters • 33 Forecasts
Started Jul 01, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Taiwan as of 31 July 2022?

27 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Fewer than 3.8 million
0%
Between 3.8 million and 4.3 million, inclusive
25%
More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.8 million
67%
Between 4.8 million and 5.3 million, inclusive
8%
More than 5.3 million but fewer than 5.8 million
0%
Between 5.8 million and 6.3 million, inclusive
0%
More than 6.3 million
0%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the daily reported natural gas in storage in the EU for 31 July 2022?

20 Forecasters • 30 Forecasts
Started Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 650.0 TWh
0%
Between 650.0 TWh and 700.0 TWh, inclusive
0%
More than 700.0 TWh but less than 750.0 TWh
35%
Between 750.0 TWh and 800.0 TWh, inclusive
48%
More than 800.0 TWh
17%
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury on 1 August 2022?

26 Forecasters • 45 Forecasts
Started Jun 28, 2022 09:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC
 Show All Possible Answers
Less than 2.60
0%
Between 2.60 and 3.00, inclusive
31%
More than 3.00 but less than 3.40
51%
Between 3.40 and 3.80, inclusive
18%
More than 3.80 but less than 4.20
0%
4.20 or higher
0%
Foxes Ask:

Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of a country in the Horn of Africa before 1 April 2023?

68%

Chance
27 Forecasters • 42 Forecasts
Started Jun 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
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