Good Judgment® Open

Before 1 January 2026, will the US Senate pass "reconciliation" legislation that includes a prohibition on Planned Parenthood from receiving payments from Medicaid?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC · 15 · 18

Roche asks:

Between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025, will the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issue new formal guidance explicitly addressing validation requirements for AI algorithms used in the analysis of clinical trial data?

Closing Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 25 · 32

Roche asks:

As of 30 September 2025, how many novel drug candidates will Insilico Medicine have announced as having entered a US FDA-registered Phase III clinical trial and identified using their AI-driven platforms?

Closing Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 19 · 27

Roche asks:

Between 2 June 2025 and 1 October 2025, which of the following major medical diagnostics companies will first announce regulatory approval from any national (e.g., US FDA) or supranational (e.g., EU's EMA) public regulatory body for a novel, AI-driven diagnostic tool intended for clinical decision-making in oncology for human patients?

Closing Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 18 · 27

Roche asks:

Before 1 October 2025, which of the top four pharmaceutical companies by 2024 research and development budgets will first announce the acquisition of an AI-centered drug development startup with a value of $500 million or more?

Closing Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 17 · 21

Roche asks:

Which organization's large language model (LLM) will be ranked first as of 30 September 2025, according to MedHELM's medical domain LLM leaderboard?

Closing Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 23 · 30

Roche asks:

Which organization's large language model (LLM) will be ranked first as of 30 September 2025, according to LM Arena's "Text Arena?"

Closing Sep 30, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 26 · 34

What will be the average price of a dozen large eggs in the US in September 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 23 · 47

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will Israel publicly announce that a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip has begun?

Closing Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC · 33 · 63

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 January 2026, will the World Health Organization (WHO) or US CDC report a human case of H5N1 avian influenza infection outside of Asia where sustained human-to-human transmission is the suspected cause?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC · 20 · 24