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Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?

100%

Chance
114 Forecasters • 257 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will North Korea launch an ICBM with a length of at least 20 meters before 1 December 2020?

0%

Chance
142 Forecasters • 274 Forecasts
Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?

100%

Chance
155 Forecasters • 430 Forecasts
Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 15, 2021 03:00AM UTC

Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union decide to impose an arms embargo against Turkey?

0%

Chance
99 Forecasters • 192 Forecasts
Started Nov 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?

83 Forecasters • 276 Forecasts
Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 07, 2020 09:00PM UTC
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Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 15 September 2020 and 30 November 2020, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

0%

Chance
176 Forecasters • 475 Forecasts
Started Sep 15, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC
sebawi asks:

When will the EU add the U.S. to its list of countries for which member states should gradually lift travel restrictions?

253 Forecasters • 665 Forecasts
Started Jul 31, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2020 07:01AM UTC
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Between 25 July 2020 and 25 November 2020, will a lethal confrontation in Libya result in five or more fatalities for Egyptian armed forces?

0%

Chance
161 Forecasters • 496 Forecasts
Started Jul 24, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 26, 2020 08:01AM UTC

Before 26 December 2020, will the Australian government accuse the Chinese government, by name, of being behind the "copy-paste compromises" cyberattacks?

0%

Chance
128 Forecasters • 406 Forecasts
Started Jun 26, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 26, 2020 08:01AM UTC
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