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The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will France grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022?

100%

Chance
35 Forecasters • 59 Forecasts
Started Feb 26, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 03, 2021 05:00PM UTC

Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?

100%

Chance
114 Forecasters • 257 Forecasts
Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?

0%

Chance
218 Forecasters • 369 Forecasts
Started Jan 06, 2021 08:30PM UTC
Closed Mar 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?

0%

Chance
261 Forecasters • 601 Forecasts
Started Nov 13, 2020 10:30PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will North Korea launch an ICBM with a length of at least 20 meters before 1 December 2020?

0%

Chance
142 Forecasters • 274 Forecasts
Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2020 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?

0%

Chance
266 Forecasters • 584 Forecasts
Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?

100%

Chance
155 Forecasters • 430 Forecasts
Started Nov 09, 2020 11:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 15, 2021 03:00AM UTC

Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union decide to impose an arms embargo against Turkey?

0%

Chance
99 Forecasters • 192 Forecasts
Started Nov 06, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?

83 Forecasters • 276 Forecasts
Started Sep 25, 2020 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 07, 2020 09:00PM UTC
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